the week in dollar bets
August 03 – August 09, 2026
10 markets featured across 1 days. Here's what stood out.
biggest longshot
🟪 Dolphins win AFC Championship in 2027
$1 could have paid $76.92
Miami's suffering from success meets the laws of probability
most respectable longshot
🟧 US signs new Iranian nuclear deal by October
$1 pays $11.11 — dramatic but credible
geopolitical breakthrough speedrun, any%
lowest payout on the board
🟩 Humanoid robot walks on Mars before humans
$1 pays $2 — barely worth bragging about
the timeline is being aggressively polite about this
all markets this week
- 🟩 Humanoid robot walks on Mars before humans the timeline is being aggressively polite about this $1 → $2 Kalshi »
- 🟩 Cardinals win all 4 games in Week 1 assembling a statement before anyone's paying attention $1 → $2 Kalshi »
- 🟩 8.0 magnitude earthquake hits Japan before 2030 statistically improbable, geologically shrugging $1 → $2.33 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Alysa Liu becomes most-searched athlete this year the algorithm would have to develop a very specific obsession $1 → $6.06 Polymarket »
- 🟨 SPD wins most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026 in other news: the Green Party forgets how to organize $1 → $6.45 Polymarket »
- 🟨 Anthropic hits $800B valuation by year-end the venture capital machine still has two cylinders firing $1 → $6.90 Polymarket »
- 🟧 California hit by 8.0+ magnitude earthquake before 2028 the San Andreas fault suddenly remembers it exists $1 → $7.69 Kalshi »
- 🟧 US signs new Iranian nuclear deal by October geopolitical breakthrough speedrun, any% $1 → $11.11 Kalshi »
- 🟥 ChatGPT first to 1550 on Text Arena the machine finally reads the room it built $1 → $20 Kalshi »
- 🟪 Dolphins win AFC Championship in 2027 Miami's suffering from success meets the laws of probability $1 → $76.92 Polymarket »