The Week in Dollar Bets
30 markets featured across 3 days. Here's what stood out.
biggest longshot
Dolphins win AFC Championship in 2027
$1 could have paid $76.92
Miami's suffering from success meets the laws of probability
most respectable longshot
US signs new Iranian nuclear deal by October
$1 pays $11.11, dramatic but credible
geopolitical breakthrough speedrun, any%
lowest payout on the board
SCOTUS allows First Step Act halfway-house claims before August 2028
$1 pays $1.54, barely worth bragging about
the judicial calendar has entered the chat
All markets this week
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Dolphins win AFC Championship in 2027$1 pays$76.92Miami's suffering from success meets the laws of probability
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ChatGPT first to 1550 on Text Arena$1 pays$20the machine finally reads the room it built
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US signs new Iranian nuclear deal by October$1 pays$11.11geopolitical breakthrough speedrun, any%
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California hit by 8.0+ magnitude earthquake before 2028$1 pays$7.69the San Andreas fault suddenly remembers it exists
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Anthropic hits $800B valuation by year-end$1 pays$6.90the venture capital machine still has two cylinders firing
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SPD wins most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026$1 pays$6.45in other news: the Green Party forgets how to organize
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SPD wins most seats in 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections$1 pays$6.25the coalition math already looks like a hostage situation
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OpenAI IPOs before Anthropic$1 pays$6.25Thiel's checklist just got shorter
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Alysa Liu becomes most-searched athlete this year$1 pays$6.06the algorithm would have to develop a very specific obsession
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New business applications hit record high in 2026$1 pays$2.44spreadsheet season is eternal
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The Pitt wins 4 or 5 Emmys$1 pays$2.38somehow this is the most competitive category
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8.0 magnitude earthquake hits Japan before 2030$1 pays$2.33statistically improbable, geologically shrugging
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Humanoid robot walks on Mars before humans$1 pays$2the timeline is being aggressively polite about this
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Cardinals win all 4 games in Week 1$1 pays$2assembling a statement before anyone's paying attention
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SCOTUS allows First Step Act halfway-house claims before August 2028$1 pays$1.54the judicial calendar has entered the chat