black swans
The internet's strangest prediction markets. Snow in April, celebrity announcements, AI breakthroughs, earthquake odds — the kind of stuff that sounds fake but has actual money behind it. Translated into $1 payouts.
today's black swans
no new black swans today. civilization briefly behaved.
all black swans
- 🟪 Elon posts exactly 140-164 tweets in three days the odds of this are the same as a controlled demolition landing on one specific tile $1 → $2,000 Polymarket »
- 🟪 WTI crude hits $175 this June in other news: someone's short-selling the sun $1 → $2,000 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Wesley Said tops Ligue 1 scoring this season I want it that way, but the market does not $1 → $500 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Delhi Capitals win the 2026 IPL not with a bang but a 0.0025 $1 → $400 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Grigor Dimitrov wins Wimbledon this year in other news: Bulgaria hosting the next World Cup $1 → $400 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Google holds the #1 AI spot at end of May the map is not the territory but this territory is cooked $1 → $333.33 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Elon posts exactly 420-439 tweets in July identifying this many individual hairs on a specific dog $1 → $285.71 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Vladimir Putin wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in other news: Cats (2019) sweeps the Criterion Collection $1 → $285.71 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Crude oil spikes to $105 by end of June Mad Max: Fury Road but it's a commodities desk $1 → $200 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Rick Jackson wins Georgia runoff by under 5 points in other news: a single Fulton County precinct sneezes $1 → $200 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? mama said knock it out of the park $1 → $166.67 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Elon Musk wins the Nobel Peace Prize same odds as the committee dissolving into a singularity $1 → $153.85 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Naomi Osaka wins Wimbledon this year Comeback Season by Drake feat. the grass courts of SW19 $1 → $153.85 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Elon Musk wins the Nobel Peace Prize this year Alanis Morissette could not have written this $1 → $153.85 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? the rare bet where losing is also entertaining $1 → $142.86 Polymarket »