black swans
Sounds fake. The money is real.
Snow in April, celebrity announcements, AI breakthroughs, earthquake odds — the internet's strangest prediction markets, translated into $1 payouts.
today's black swans
no new black swans today. civilization briefly behaved.
all black swans
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Elon posts exactly 140-164 tweets in three days$1 pays$2,000the odds of this are the same as a controlled demolition landing on one specific tile
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WTI crude hits $175 this June$1 pays$2,000in other news: someone's short-selling the sun
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Wesley Said tops Ligue 1 scoring this season$1 pays$500I want it that way, but the market does not
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Delhi Capitals win the 2026 IPL$1 pays$400not with a bang but a 0.0025
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Grigor Dimitrov wins Wimbledon this year$1 pays$400in other news: Bulgaria hosting the next World Cup
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Google holds the #1 AI spot at end of May$1 pays$333.33the map is not the territory but this territory is cooked
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Elon posts exactly 420-439 tweets in July$1 pays$285.71identifying this many individual hairs on a specific dog
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Vladimir Putin wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize$1 pays$285.71in other news: Cats (2019) sweeps the Criterion Collection
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Fabian Ruiz wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or$1 pays$222.22the deep-lying playmaker vote is real and it is small
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Crude oil spikes to $105 by end of June$1 pays$200Mad Max: Fury Road but it's a commodities desk
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Rick Jackson wins Georgia runoff by under 5 points$1 pays$200in other news: a single Fulton County precinct sneezes
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100 ships transit Hormuz in a single day$1 pays$181.82tanker traffic jam, the Suez Canal boat cheers from retirement
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Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$1 pays$166.67mama said knock it out of the park
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Elon Musk wins the Nobel Peace Prize$1 pays$153.85same odds as the committee dissolving into a singularity
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Naomi Osaka wins Wimbledon this year$1 pays$153.85Comeback Season by Drake feat. the grass courts of SW19