Black Swans
Sounds fake. The money is real.
Snow in April, celebrity announcements, AI breakthroughs, earthquake odds. The internet's strangest prediction markets, translated into $1 payouts.
Today's Black Swans
no new black swans today. civilization briefly behaved.
All Black Swans
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Elon posts exactly 140-164 tweets in three days$1 pays$2,000the odds of this are the same as a controlled demolition landing on one specific tile
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WTI crude hits $175 this June$1 pays$2,000in other news: someone's short-selling the sun
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Primetime opens to $22 million or more$1 pays$2,00022 million in tickets, 21 million of them bought by Colorado boosters
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Chargers and Seahawks clear 53.5 points$1 pays$2,000crowd noise plus zero tackling and suddenly it's a Big 12 game
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Wesley Said tops Ligue 1 scoring this season$1 pays$500I want it that way, but the market does not
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Delhi Capitals win the 2026 IPL$1 pays$400not with a bang but a 0.0025
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Grigor Dimitrov wins Wimbledon this year$1 pays$400in other news: Bulgaria hosting the next World Cup
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Z.ai tops Chatbot Arena at 1550 first$1 pays$400Hangzhou kids doing it for a fraction of the GPUs
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Google holds the #1 AI spot at end of May$1 pays$333.33the map is not the territory but this territory is cooked
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Elon posts exactly 420-439 tweets in July$1 pays$285.71identifying this many individual hairs on a specific dog
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Vladimir Putin wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize$1 pays$285.71in other news: Cats (2019) sweeps the Criterion Collection
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Fabian Ruiz wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or$1 pays$222.22the deep-lying playmaker vote is real and it is small
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Crude oil spikes to $105 by end of June$1 pays$200Mad Max: Fury Road but it's a commodities desk
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Rick Jackson wins Georgia runoff by under 5 points$1 pays$200in other news: a single Fulton County precinct sneezes
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100 ships transit Hormuz in a single day$1 pays$181.82tanker traffic jam, the Suez Canal boat cheers from retirement