black swans
The internet's strangest prediction markets. Snow in April, celebrity announcements, AI breakthroughs, earthquake odds — the kind of stuff that sounds fake but has actual money behind it. Translated into $1 payouts.
today's black swans
- 🟧 Grok is first to hit 1550 on Text Arena Elon with the come from behind AI victory $1 → $14.29 Kalshi »
- 🟧 Elon posts exactly 200–219 tweets in a week in other news: tide comes in, tide goes out $1 → $12.12 Polymarket »
- 🟨 An AI model hits 1550 Arena Score by September WWF but make it computers $1 → $6.45 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Denmark cracks Eurovision top 5 in 2026 Scandinavians have done stranger things $1 → $2.44 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Which film gets an Oscar nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling? The Riders of Rohan were local horse girls in beards. confirmed. $1 → $2.33 Kalshi »
all black swans
- 🟪 Wesley Said tops Ligue 1 scoring this season I want it that way, but the market does not $1 → $500 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Delhi Capitals win the 2026 IPL not with a bang but a 0.0025 $1 → $400 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? the rare bet where losing is also entertaining $1 → $142.86 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Croatia wins Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Baby Lasagna, the newest addition to the kids menu at Olive Garden $1 → $74.07 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Qinwen Zheng wins the 2026 French Open we call this a tennis 10xer $1 → $74.07 Polymarket »
- 🟪 Ryan Dotson takes the GOP nod for KY-06 a wikipedia page currently under construction $1 → $54.05 Polymarket »
- 🟥 SWAG stays number one for a week or more the charts are unwell $1 → $50 Kalshi »
- 🟥 'Dots' wins Best Scenic Design of a Musical at the Tonys Sondheim would be baffled $1 → $25 Kalshi »
- 🟥 Ukraine coup attempt before July not even the discourse wants this one $1 → $24.39 Polymarket »
- 🟥 Russia enters Zaporizhia by June 30 what sounds like a Greek sauce but smacks of imperialism $1 → $23.26 Polymarket »
- 🟥 Will Shane Gillis be the primary target of the roast and whose name appears in the official title or promotional materials of the roast special at the next Netflix-produced live or recorded celebrity roast special released on Netflix? science is just spicy guessing $1 → $16.67 Kalshi »
- 🟧 TikTok banned in US before July? a prayer and a dollar $1 → $20 Kalshi »
- 🟧 2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations? more love for craft catering $1 → $16.67 Kalshi »
- 🟧 Obama federally charged before 2027? the quiet part said loudly, for a dollar $1 → $14.39 Polymarket »
- 🟧 Lighter token hits $8 before 2027 number go up, vibes go sideways $1 → $14.29 Polymarket »