hall of filth

the stories

• Trump 2016: When the Prediction Markets Got It Wrong
  The escalator ride that broke every model.
  $1 → $150
• Buster Douglas: 42-to-1 and the Night Tyson Fell
  Forty-two to one. The only thing crazier than the odds was the eighth round.
  $1 → $42
• Leicester City: 5000-to-1 and the Greatest Underdog Story
  Five thousand to one. They weren't joking. They should have been.
  $1 → $5,000
• The 2004 Red Sox: Down 3-0 and the Comeback That Shouldn't Exist
  Down three games to none. Against the Yankees. In October. Sure.
  $1 → $25
• Appalachian State vs Michigan: The Upset That Broke College Football
  An FCS school. In the Big House. Against a top-5 team. On the first day of the season.
  $1 → $1,000
• Biggest Longshot Wins in Sports History
  History is written by the underdogs. Sometimes.
  $1 → $5,000
• The Miracle on Ice: What $1 Would Have Paid
  Do you believe in miracles? The market didn't.
  $1 → $35
• What Would $1 Have Paid on Famous Bets?
  History, reframed as a betting slip.
  $1 → $5,000
• Strangest Bets Ever Made
  People have always been like this.
  $1 → $100
• Biggest Parlay Wins Ever
  Parlays: the lottery ticket of the betting world.
  $1 → $50,000
• GameStop: When Reddit Broke the Market
  Reddit vs Wall Street. A dollar said maybe. A lot of dollars said maybe.
  $1 → $120
• George Whitesides, the Rocket Man on the CA-27 Primary Slip
  A buck says the man who ran the rocket company holds the rocket district.
  $1 → $2.17
• Lear deBessonet and the Dollar Bet on Best Direction of a Musical
  A buck says the woman named Lear gets a happier ending than the play.
  $1 → $10
• Someone Is Betting a Dollar on a 130-Year-Old Haystack Painting
  waterlilies > your entire portfolio
  $1 → $4.17
• NASA, the Moon, and the $1 Contract Betting Against a Slipping Launch Schedule
  the launch schedule is currently under construction
  $1 → $15.15
• obama federally charged before 2027, priced as a dollar bet
  the payout is large because the market thinks the answer is no.
  $1 → $14.39
• Taylor Swift, Pope Leo XIV, and the Kalshi Market That Lists Them in the Same Sentence
  Bejeweled, Vatican edit.
  $1 → $16.67
• The Polymarket Contract Asking Whether a U.S. Congressperson Will Walk Into Tehran by June 30
  congressional delegations to Tehran historically land in the fiction section
  $1 → $111.11
• Weird Prediction Markets Report: 107 Days, 600 Markets, One $2,000 Payout
  $1 → $0