the week in dollar bets
June 15 – June 21, 2026
63 markets featured across 7 days. Here's what stood out.
biggest longshot
🟪 Grigor Dimitrov wins Wimbledon this year
$1 could have paid $400
in other news: Bulgaria hosting the next World Cup
most respectable longshot
🟧 June 2026 is the hottest June on record
$1 pays $11.11 — dramatic but credible
This Is Fine, the peer-reviewed edition
lowest payout on the board
🟩 Japan gets an 8.0 earthquake before 2030
$1 pays $1.54 — barely worth bragging about
the Ring of Fire is not a metaphor
all markets this week
- 🟩 Frank Blas Jr. wins the Guam GOP primary island politics, mainland stakes, one name on the door $1 → $2.33 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Venezuela schedules an election this year Maduro's calendar app loading... $1 → $2.63 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Bitcoin rises in the early morning hours 4am and the coin does whatever it wants $1 → $2.86 Polymarket »
- 🟨 LPL takes the MSI 2026 trophy short the West, long the infrastructure $1 → $3.51 Polymarket »
- 🟨 Van Gogh shatters his auction record this season starry night, nine-figure morning $1 → $4.35 Kalshi »
- 🟨 US and Iran strike a nuclear deal this year Oppenheimer but the sequel has a happy ending $1 → $5.56 Kalshi »
- 🟧 June 2026 is the hottest June on record This Is Fine, the peer-reviewed edition $1 → $11.11 Kalshi »
- 🟧 An AI model hits 1550 Arena Score by September leaderboard currently under construction $1 → $13.33 Polymarket »
- 🟥 NASA lands on the Moon before 2028 we choose to go not because it is easy but because the schedule said Q4 $1 → $18.87 Kalshi »
- 🟪 Grigor Dimitrov wins Wimbledon this year in other news: Bulgaria hosting the next World Cup $1 → $400 Polymarket »
- 🟩 A robot walks on Mars before any human does WALL-E was a documentary $1 → $2.04 Kalshi »
- 🟩 Frank Blas Jr. wins Guam's GOP gubernatorial primary small island, large inevitability $1 → $2.35 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Nithya Raman wins the LA mayor's race city of angles, one clear vector $1 → $2.51 Polymarket »
- 🟨 2026 is the hottest year on record just please on the day I wear a coat $1 → $3.13 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Cameron Boozer goes second overall in the NBA Draft short the kid picked first $1 → $4 Polymarket »