the week in dollar bets
July 20 – July 26, 2026
58 markets featured across 6 days. Here's what stood out.
biggest longshot
🟪 Bitcoin above 65,600 on July 24 at 3AM
$1 could have paid $2,000
someone set an alarm for this exact moment
most respectable longshot
🟧 California gets an 8.0 earthquake before 2027
$1 pays $12.50 — dramatic but credible
in other news: the San Andreas Fault filing paperwork on schedule
lowest payout on the board
🟩 Blue Origin lands on the moon before 2030
$1 pays $1.56 — barely worth bragging about
the space race but everyone's already checked their phone
all markets this week
- 🟩 Both teams score in the first half tonight Mexican league does not do nil-nil $1 → $1.64 Kalshi »
- 🟩 Rippling IPOs before Deel Parker Conrad's villain arc has a prospectus $1 → $2.27 Kalshi »
- 🟩 OpenAI stays above $750B this year the number is large and getting larger $1 → $2.35 Polymarket »
- 🟨 WTI Crude hits $95 this July in other news: OPEC discovering scarcity for the first time $1 → $4.20 Polymarket »
- 🟨 July 2026 is the hottest July on record just please on the day I wear linen $1 → $4.35 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Russia takes Novooleksandrivka by month's end slow as paint, twice as permanent $1 → $4.88 Polymarket »
- 🟧 Starship carries humans to Mars before 2030 The Martian but the rescue budget got cut $1 → $7.14 Kalshi »
- 🟧 California gets an 8.0 earthquake before 2027 in other news: the San Andreas Fault filing paperwork on schedule $1 → $12.50 Kalshi »
- 🟥 NASA puts boots on the Moon before 2028 wikipedia page currently under construction $1 → $34.48 Kalshi »
- 🟪 Colts win the Super Bowl in 2027 somewhere Jim Irsay is assembling a mood board $1 → $86.96 Polymarket »
- 🟩 California gets an 8.0+ earthquake before 2035 the seismic equivalent of a smoke detector at 3am $1 → $2.27 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Silver drops to $54 in July the metal market's way of testing your conviction $1 → $3.57 Polymarket »
- 🟨 Phoebe Bridgers' Lost Weekend exceeds 80K AEUs in August tracking week funeral doom folk does the numbers thing $1 → $3.70 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Van Gogh breaks $117M auction record this season someone's already mortgaged their second home on this $1 → $4.35 Kalshi »
- 🟧 Moonshot has China's best AI model by end of July 2026 in other news: a bicycle becomes a spaceship $1 → $12.99 Polymarket »