the week in dollar bets
July 13 – July 19, 2026
67 markets featured across 7 days. Here's what stood out.
biggest longshot
🟪 Rick Jackson wins Georgia runoff by under 5 points
$1 could have paid $200
in other news: a single Fulton County precinct sneezes
most respectable longshot
🟧 US strikes a new Iran nuclear deal before September
$1 pays $11.11 — dramatic but credible
99 Problems but the centrifuge ain't one
lowest payout on the board
🟩 Japan gets an 8.0 earthquake before 2030
$1 pays $1.52 — barely worth bragging about
the fault line has its calendar marked
all markets this week
- 🟩 New business applications hit a monthly record this year America incorporating its way through the vibes recession $1 → $1.96 Kalshi »
- 🟩 David Sacks leaves the Trump administration this year the man has options $1 → $2.33 Polymarket »
- 🟩 RFK Jr. exits the Trump administration this year raw milk and a golden parachute $1 → $2.90 Polymarket »
- 🟨 California gets an 8.0+ earthquake before 2035 just please not on the day I drive the 101 $1 → $3.03 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Ukraine retakes Uspenivka by year's end Control, but the Ukranian edition $1 → $3.03 Polymarket »
- 🟨 US and Iran hold diplomatic talks by July two countries, one very awkward handshake $1 → $3.17 Polymarket »
- 🟧 US strikes a new Iran nuclear deal before September 99 Problems but the centrifuge ain't one $1 → $11.11 Kalshi »
- 🟧 Gemini tops Text Arena at 1550 first Moneyball for chatbots, and the scouts are furious $1 → $12.50 Kalshi »
- 🟥 Waka Waka opens the World Cup Final halftime show Shakira's hips do not lie and they have a setlist $1 → $16.67 Kalshi »
- 🟪 Iran ends uranium enrichment by July 31 in other news: Al-Qaeda pivoting to artisanal sourdough $1 → $60.61 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Steve Lacy's 'Oh Yeah' cracks 12K sales this week Bad Habit energy, different era $1 → $1.82 Kalshi »
- 🟩 IK Start beats Vålerenga 2-3 today someone in Oslo is very specific about this $1 → $2 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Rippling IPOs before Deel short the other guy $1 → $2.33 Kalshi »
- 🟨 2026 is the hottest year on record An Inconvenient Sequel had a longer runway $1 → $4.35 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Cameron Boozer wins NBA Rookie of the Year the Knicks picked wrong and we all have to live with it $1 → $4.65 Polymarket »