the week in dollar bets
June 22 – June 28, 2026
61 markets featured across 7 days. Here's what stood out.
biggest longshot
🟪 Fetterman leaves the Democratic Party by June 30
$1 could have paid $250
Zell Miller only did it once
most respectable longshot
🟥 Grok hits 1550 first on Text Arena
$1 pays $25 — dramatic but credible
Secretariat at Belmont, but the horse is extremely online
lowest payout on the board
🟩 Japan gets an 8.0 earthquake before 2030
$1 pays $1.59 — barely worth bragging about
the Ring of Fire has a calendar
all markets this week
- 🟩 Venezuela schedules an election by end of 2026 Maduro's calendar, famously flexible $1 → $2.60 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Dan Sullivan holds his Alaska Senate seat in 2026 the Last Frontier, reliably $1 → $2.63 Polymarket »
- 🟨 2026 is the hottest year on record just please not the summer I finally buy a convertible $1 → $3.85 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Ethereum crashes to $1,000 this year the Fyre Festival of asset classes, potentially $1 → $4.08 Polymarket »
- 🟨 Van Gogh shatters the auction record this season ear joke too easy, $117M joke perfectly sized $1 → $4.35 Kalshi »
- 🟧 Trump endorses Machado for Venezuela president this year in other news: JCPOA returning as a limited-run Netflix original $1 → $8.70 Polymarket »
- 🟧 Doge-1 reaches the moon by end of 2026 the wikipedia page is currently under construction $1 → $9.05 Polymarket »
- 🟥 Grok hits 1550 first on Text Arena Secretariat at Belmont, but the horse is extremely online $1 → $25 Kalshi »
- 🟥 US and Iran sign a nuclear deal before July We Found Love in a Hopeless Place, but the remix $1 → $50 Kalshi »
- 🟪 Any AI model hits 1530 Arena Score by June Light years ahead of where we are now, and also: no $1 → $133.33 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Frank Blas Jr. wins the Guam GOP primary small island, decisive vibes $1 → $2.08 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Rippling IPOs before Deel first to the ticker window wins nothing except everything $1 → $2.33 Kalshi »
- 🟩 Next Mythos-class AI model drops by July the benchmark leaderboard is updating as we speak $1 → $2.56 Polymarket »
- 🟨 'So Easy (To Fall In Love)' lands a Grammy nod the Recording Academy has made stranger calls with a straight face $1 → $4.55 Kalshi »
- 🟨 California hits an 8.0 earthquake before 2028 just please not the day I drive the 5 $1 → $6.25 Kalshi »