the week in dollar bets
May 18 – May 24, 2026
65 markets featured across 7 days. Here's what stood out.
biggest longshot
🟪 Liam Lawson wins the 2026 F1 title
$1 could have paid $400
don't stop me now — wait, no, please stop, this is statistically violent
most respectable longshot
🟧 Ernest Richter wins the CA-33 primary
$1 pays $11.11 — dramatic but credible
the democratic process just became more electric
lowest payout on the board
🟩 WILD debuts above 100K album units
$1 pays $1.54 — barely worth bragging about
the math was never really in question
all markets this week
- 🟩 California gets an 8.0 earthquake before 2035 shaking the liberals to their very core $1 → $1.89 Kalshi »
- 🟩 Houston Astros win tonight outrageously plausible $1 → $2.02 Polymarket »
- 🟩 San Lorenzo tops Obras tonight professional french basketball is the indie band of the sports world $1 → $2.44 Polymarket »
- 🟨 May 2026 breaks the heat record just please not on the day i wear layers $1 → $4.35 Kalshi »
- 🟨 Trump endorses Machado for Venezuela president this is like if John Harbaugh tweeted a starting line up for OKC $1 → $6.45 Polymarket »
- 🟧 Ernest Richter wins the CA-33 primary the democratic process just became more electric $1 → $11.11 Kalshi »
- 🟧 Cleveland finishes last in the league next season when underdogs go back to being just dogs $1 → $12.50 Kalshi »
- 🟥 US and Iran sign a new nuclear deal this year Oppenheimer but the sequel has a happy ending nobody asked for $1 → $17.54 Kalshi »
- 🟥 NASA puts boots on the Moon before 2027 Trump, hot off Greenland fail, decides to invade the moon to save face $1 → $30.30 Kalshi »
- 🟪 Dolphins win the AFC Championship in 2027 What if Messi transfers and starts hitting FGs from 75 yards $1 → $60.61 Polymarket »
- 🟩 George Whitesides leads the CA-27 primary California primaries: where dreams go to die $1 → $2.17 Kalshi »
- 🟩 SPY hits $750 this month install a bloomberg terminal at the strip club $1 → $2.20 Polymarket »
- 🟩 Annual inflation hits 4.4% or more in May eggs now cost $73 dollars and are sold in packages of 3 $1 → $2.82 Polymarket »
- 🟨 Francesca Hong wins the Wisconsin Dem governor primary the first chef with electable political opinions since Anthony Bourdain $1 → $3.37 Polymarket »
- 🟨 An AI model cracks 1550 Arena Score by September what if we get the AIs to compete in Rocket League instead $1 → $5.26 Polymarket »