Politicians With Live Prediction Markets: June 2026 Political Roster

This is politics-only, named-individual prediction market coverage. Only contracts that have a specific politician's name on them as the subject of the bet — not policy contracts, not event contracts, not 'will the Senate pass X' generics. Named politicians whose political futures are being priced as financial instruments right now, and only those. For weird markets across all categories, the all-category roundup is the better starting point.

The June 2026 political roster has added two names since last month: Andrew Yang is back on the board with a 2028 presidential run announcement contract, and Frank Blas Jr. has a Guam gubernatorial primary market closing in August. The headliner from last month — the $8.7M Polymarket contract on whether Trump exits the presidency before 2027 — is still running and still by far the largest named-politician market on either exchange.

Polymarket contract: whether Donald Trump exits the presidency before January 1, 2027. The yes side has been trading around eleven and a half cents, meaning a single dollar returns about $8.70 if it hits. Orange tier — heater. What separates this from everything else on the political roster is the volume: more than $8.7 million has traded on this single contract. By comparison, the combined volume of every other named-politician market currently on the board is a rounding error. The contract resolves yes on any of the standard exits — resignation, removal, succession, death — and is neutral about which. The price is what the price is.

Polymarket contract: whether Andrew Yang announces a 2028 presidential run at any point before December 31, 2026. A dollar returns $7.66 — orange tier, heater — putting the implied odds just above 13%. The market has around $8,900 in volume, which is thin but not negligible; enough people are tracking Andrew Yang's post-Forward Party moves to generate actual price discovery. Yang ran in 2020, launched a third-party vehicle in 2022, and has been quiet. The market's 13% says: probably not, but the kind of probably-not that's still worth a few bucks if you have an opinion.

Polymarket contract: whether Frank Blas Jr. wins Guam's Republican gubernatorial primary. A dollar returns $2.35 — green tier, respectable — implying odds around 42%. The market closes August 1, which means it resolves before the end of summer. Blas is the Republican incumbent lieutenant governor on an island of roughly 170,000 people that runs contested gubernatorial primaries that Polymarket users will apparently list and trade. Volume on this contract is around $8,500 — real money for a Guam primary. The fact that this market exists and has a genuine price is, once again, the entire pitch for prediction markets: any election with a name and a date.

Kalshi market: whether Armando Perez-Serrato finishes first in the California 46th congressional district primary. A dollar returns $11.11 — orange tier — putting implied odds around 9%. Volume: roughly $100, which is genuinely just a handful of people. CA-46 covers parts of Orange County around Anaheim and Santa Ana. This market was listed when the May roster ran, and it's still open — 2027 California primaries have a long runway. The price has likely moved.

Three names from last month's roster remain listed: Chi Charlie Nguyen (CA-45 primary), George Whitesides (CA-27 primary), and Francesca Hong (Wisconsin Democratic governor primary). All three resolve at 2027 primaries — slow-burn contracts. Whitesides was trading at high-forties implied odds, Nguyen around 10%, Hong around 30%, when last priced here; all three will have moved since. Check the live exchanges for current prices. These are not on today's daily board but were verifiably listed contracts when this page was last updated.

One contract has done $8.7 million in volume on a national exit question involving the sitting president. One is a 13%-implied-odds bet on a tech entrepreneur who has been quiet for two years. One is a Guam primary with $8,500 on it and a resolution date in August. And four more are low-volume California and Wisconsin primary contracts that resolve in 2027. That distribution — one massive contract, one medium-quirky one, one regional oddity, and a handful of slow-burn state primaries — is a better snapshot of how political prediction markets actually work than cable news provides. Volume follows national stakes and name recognition. Everything else prices at the margin, with whatever the small number of people who care can generate.

Short version: contested and jurisdictional. Election-related prediction markets in the US have been through repeated regulatory and court fights — Kalshi's election contracts have been litigated more than once, and Polymarket operates offshore. Availability varies by state and has changed within the last year. We keep a dedicated page on whether you can legally bet on elections — read that first if you are new to this part of the market. We are not lawyers and this page is not legal advice.