Every Politician With a Prediction Market on Them Right Now (June 2026)

The June 2026 roster of named-individual political markets is bigger than May's. Last month we found three primary candidates with contracts on them. This month adds a new California challenger, plus the largest named-politician market on the entire site: a Polymarket contract on whether Donald Trump exits the presidency before 2027 that has traded more than $8.7 million in volume. Below is the current snapshot, the way the live board served it the morning this page was built.

These are person-specific markets only. Plenty of policy and event contracts are also live — Fed rate decisions, federal budget deadlines, foreign policy questions — but none of those have a single human's name on them, so they live on a different page. This one is the roster of named individuals whose own political futures are being priced as financial contracts right now.

Polymarket contract: whether Donald Trump exits the presidency before January 1, 2027. The yes side has been trading around eleven and a half cents, which means a single dollar returns about $8.70 if it hits. Orange tier — heater. What pushes this market into a different weight class from anything else on the roster is the volume: more than $8.7 million has changed hands on this single contract. By comparison, the entire combined volume of every other named-politician market we have eyes on right now is a rounding error. The market resolves yes on any of the usual exits — resignation, removal, succession, death — and is neutral about which. The price is what the price is.

Kalshi market: whether Armando Perez-Serrato finishes first in the California 46th congressional district primary. A dollar returns $11.11 — orange tier, heater — putting his implied odds around 9%. Volume on the contract: roughly $100, which is genuinely just a handful of people deciding the price between themselves. CA-46 covers parts of Orange County around Anaheim and Santa Ana. The fact that a low-volume single-candidate Kalshi contract on a 2027 California primary is now a tradable instrument is, frankly, the entire pitch for prediction markets: any race with a resolution date and a name will eventually get a listing.

Three names from last month's roster are still listed: Chi Charlie Nguyen (CA-45 primary), George Whitesides (CA-27 primary), and Francesca Hong (Wisconsin Democratic governor primary). All three resolve at primaries well into 2027, so they were always going to be slow-burn contracts. Prices on each have likely moved since May — Whitesides was trading at implied odds in the high forties, Nguyen around 10%, Hong around 30% — but the contracts themselves were still live the morning this page was assembled. Cross-link the May article for the original write-ups; check the live exchanges for current prices before doing anything.

Polymarket has a contract on whether Trump meets MrBeast at any point during the calendar year. A dollar returns $6.06 — yellow tier, alive — on a six-figure volume base. It is, strictly speaking, a market with a named politician on it. It is also, strictly speaking, a market about whether the sitting US president will be photographed with the world's biggest YouTuber, which makes it one of the more on-the-nose snapshots of June 2026 American culture we have available. We include it because the brief said named-individual markets and this is a named-individual market. The reader can decide whether it counts.

The interesting thing about the June roster isn't any single name. It's the distribution. One contract has done eight and a half million dollars in volume on a national exit question. One has done a hundred bucks on a primary nobody is watching. Three primaries from last month are still quietly accruing trades in the background. And one is a meet-and-greet contract that exists because Polymarket users will list anything with a deadline. That's a much weirder skew than cable news produces, where the same six national politicians get covered on a loop. Prediction markets price whoever someone is willing to put money on, and as of this month, the answer is: mostly Trump, then a quiet California challenger nobody has heard of, then last month's primary roster, then MrBeast.

Short version: contested and jurisdictional. Election-related prediction markets in the US have been through repeated rounds of regulatory and court fights — Kalshi's election contracts have been litigated more than once, and Polymarket operates from offshore. Availability varies by state and has changed within the last year. We keep a dedicated page on whether you can legally bet on elections — read that first if you are new to this part of the market. We are not lawyers and this page is not legal advice.

This is the named-individual slice. Today's full board pulls the broader political mix including policy and event markets. The politics markets page is the standing index. The weirdest election prediction markets page covers the same names plus the broader 'this exists?' angle. If a seventh named politician shows up on Kalshi or Polymarket tomorrow, they will show up on today's board first.