Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds, Explained
the current favorites
As of July 14, BetMGM had Jeremiyah Love as the betting favorite ahead of No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Behind that top pair, the board is basically the first round of the 2026 draft in order of perceived opportunity.
- Jeremiyah Love (RB, Cardinals) — around +250 to +320. $1 → roughly $3.50.
- Fernando Mendoza (QB, Raiders) — around +350. $1 → roughly $4.50.
- Carnell Tate (WR, Titans) — around +500. $1 → roughly $6.00.
- Jordyn Tyson (WR, Saints) — around +600. $1 → roughly $7.00.
- Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks) — now as short as +900, from +2700 pre-draft. $1 → roughly $10.00.
why love is favored
The Cardinals took Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the highest a running back has gone since Saquon Barkley in 2018. Love ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at the combine and rushed for 1,372 yards with 18 touchdowns last season, adding 27 catches for 280 yards and three scores. The counterargument: Arizona isn't projected to be good, and volume on a bad offense doesn't always translate into award-winning stats.
Mendoza's case is simpler and shakier. He won the Heisman and led Indiana to its first national championship, throwing for 3,535 yards with 41 touchdowns and six interceptions — but there's a real chance he isn't even starting for the Raiders to begin the season after Las Vegas signed Kirk Cousins. A QB who opens the year on the bench doesn't win Offensive Rookie of the Year, full stop.
names moving up the board
- Jadarian Price went from preseason afterthought to live sleeper — the Seahawks' final first-round pick, with Zach Charbonnet not expected at full speed by Week 1, tightened from over +2000 to around +900.
- Fernando Mendoza's backup timeline is itself a market-mover — if Cousins struggles or gets hurt early, Mendoza's price could shorten fast, or drift the opposite way.
- Ty Simpson landed in a strong situation but barring a Matthew Stafford injury won't see meaningful snaps, which is why his odds have drifted long despite the talent around him.
how to read OROY odds
The shorter the number (like Love's +250), the more implied confidence the market has — but shorter odds also mean a smaller payout relative to your stake. Longshots pay more precisely because they're less likely to happen; a +2700 number isn't a secret, it's the market telling you almost nobody thinks that guy wins.
Two patterns hold up historically. Draft slot matters enormously: the last 8 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners were selected in the top 10, 16 of the last 20 in the top 12, and 17 of the last 20 in the first round. Also, no offensive lineman has ever won it — the award has gone to skill-position players exclusively since it began in 1967.
As the season starts, prices react fast to things that don't show up in a box score yet: a coaching staff's early usage pattern, a Week 1 injury to the presumed starter ahead of a rookie, or a single breakout game against a bad defense. Whatever number you see today gets stale within a news cycle.
frequently asked questions
Who is favored for OROY right now?
Jeremiyah Love, with Fernando Mendoza close behind on most boards as of late July 2026. That order has flipped before and will likely flip again before Week 1.
Does OROY odds change week to week?
Yes, and sometimes day to day once the season starts. Preseason reps, depth chart news, and injuries all move the number.
What usually decides OROY — volume, touchdowns, or team success?
All three, weighted toward volume and touchdowns, with team success as a tiebreaker voters lean on when two candidates are close statistically.
Can a QB and RB split votes, and does position matter historically?
Position matters a lot at the nomination stage — recent winners are overwhelmingly early first-round picks — but among finalists, QBs and RBs (and occasionally WRs) do split the vote in seasons where no one candidate separates from the pack statistically.
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