How to Read Prediction Market Odds

If you've looked at a prediction market and thought 'what do these numbers mean,' this page is for you. The good news: it's simpler than sportsbook odds. The less good news: the simplicity hides some nuance that matters if you're putting real money in.

A prediction market contract pays $1 if the thing happens and $0 if it doesn't. The current price is what people are willing to pay for that contract right now. If a contract is trading at 30 cents, the crowd is saying: there's roughly a 30% chance this happens. If you buy at 30 cents and it resolves yes, you get $1 back — a profit of 70 cents on your 30-cent investment.

A 30-cent contract roughly implies 30% probability. A 5-cent contract implies 5%. A 95-cent contract implies 95%. This is approximately true but not perfectly true — platform fees, liquidity, and risk preferences all bend the price slightly away from 'pure' probability. For most purposes though, you can read the price as a percentage and be close enough.

On our board, we flip the framing. Instead of showing you the contract price, we show you what $1 invested would return if the contract resolves yes. A 5-cent contract becomes '$1 pays $20.' A 2-cent contract becomes '$1 pays $50.' The lower the contract price, the higher the payout — and the less likely the crowd thinks it is. Our color system makes this instant: green payouts are modest (the crowd thinks it's plausible), purple payouts are enormous (the crowd thinks you're dreaming).

Most prediction markets let you buy 'yes' or 'no' shares. They always add up to $1. If 'yes' is at 30 cents, 'no' is at 70 cents (roughly — there's usually a small spread). Buying 'no' at 70 cents means you profit 30 cents if the thing doesn't happen. This is how contrarians on both sides of a question coexist in the same market.

Prediction market prices move for the same reason any market moves: new information plus new money. A breaking news story can push a contract from 10 cents to 60 cents in minutes. A rumor can spike it and a denial can crater it. The price at any moment is the crowd's best real-time estimate — better than polls, because people are staking money on it.

On most platforms, there's a gap between the buy price and the sell price — the spread. Kalshi also charges fees on certain transactions. This means you can't buy at 30 cents and immediately sell at 30 cents for no loss. The spread is the platform's cut, and it matters more on small positions. For $1 bets held to resolution, the fees are minimal.

Traditional sportsbooks use American odds (+500, -200) or decimal odds (6.0, 1.5). Prediction markets use contract prices (5 cents, 80 cents). They encode the same information differently. A +500 sportsbook line is roughly equivalent to a 17-cent prediction market contract. We convert everything to the '$1 pays' format because it's the clearest: you know exactly what your dollar does.