🟪 the "surely not" bet
The "surely not" bet is the extreme longshot — the market priced so low that the payout on a dollar is absurd. $50. $100. $500. The kind of number that makes you do the math twice and then think about it for the rest of the day.
Most of these won't hit. That's the point. But prediction markets occasionally misprice things — and when a "surely not" suddenly starts moving, it becomes the most interesting market on the board.
These are the bets filed under "entertainment expenses." A dollar and a dream, priced by the crowd.
examples from the board
671 markets matched this archetype
-
Jonathan McColumn becomes Georgia's GOP Senate nominee$1 pays$2,000in other news: a lottery ticket filing for office
-
Elon posts exactly 140-164 tweets in three days$1 pays$2,000the odds of this are the same as a controlled demolition landing on one specific tile
-
WTI crude hits $175 this June$1 pays$2,000in other news: someone's short-selling the sun
-
Bitcoin above 65,600 on July 24 at 3AM$1 pays$2,000someone set an alarm for this exact moment
-
Ethereum moves between July 24-25 at 2AM ET$1 pays$2,000a dollar on whether the number goes left or right
-
Taqaddom Party wins the most seats in Lebanon$1 pays$666.67in other news: Hezbollah pivoting to competitive pickleball
-
Wesley Said tops Ligue 1 scoring this season$1 pays$500I want it that way, but the market does not
-
Solana crashes to $70 this week$1 pays$500Challenger deep has an easier floor to hit
-
Bitcoin dips to $58,000 this week$1 pays$500500 to 1 that we all learn what capitulation means
-
Kim Moon-soo wins the Gyeonggi governorship in 2026$1 pays$400four hundred dollars says hello from the void
-
Delhi Capitals win the 2026 IPL$1 pays$400not with a bang but a 0.0025
-
Michael Younger wins California Governor in 2026$1 pays$400Carly Rae Jepsen has better odds