🟪 the "surely not" bet

The "surely not" bet is the extreme longshot — the market priced so low that the payout on a dollar is absurd. $50. $100. $500. The kind of number that makes you do the math twice and then think about it for the rest of the day.

Most of these won't hit. That's the point. But prediction markets occasionally misprice things — and when a "surely not" suddenly starts moving, it becomes the most interesting market on the board.

These are the bets filed under "entertainment expenses." A dollar and a dream, priced by the crowd.

examples from the board

567 markets matched this archetype

🟪 Jonathan McColumn becomes Georgia's GOP Senate nominee in other news: a lottery ticket filing for office $1 → $2,000 Polymarket »
🟪 Elon posts exactly 140-164 tweets in three days the odds of this are the same as a controlled demolition landing on one specific tile $1 → $2,000 Polymarket »
🟪 WTI crude hits $175 this June in other news: someone's short-selling the sun $1 → $2,000 Polymarket »
🟪 Bitcoin above 65,600 on July 24 at 3AM someone set an alarm for this exact moment $1 → $2,000 Polymarket »
🟪 Ethereum moves between July 24-25 at 2AM ET a dollar on whether the number goes left or right $1 → $2,000 Polymarket »
🟪 Taqaddom Party wins the most seats in Lebanon in other news: Hezbollah pivoting to competitive pickleball $1 → $666.67 Polymarket »
🟪 Wesley Said tops Ligue 1 scoring this season I want it that way, but the market does not $1 → $500 Polymarket »
🟪 Solana crashes to $70 this week Challenger deep has an easier floor to hit $1 → $500 Polymarket »
🟪 Kim Moon-soo wins the Gyeonggi governorship in 2026 four hundred dollars says hello from the void $1 → $400 Polymarket »
🟪 Delhi Capitals win the 2026 IPL not with a bang but a 0.0025 $1 → $400 Polymarket »
🟪 Michael Younger wins California Governor in 2026 Carly Rae Jepsen has better odds $1 → $400 Polymarket »
🟪 Liam Lawson wins the 2026 F1 title don't stop me now — wait, no, please stop, this is statistically violent $1 → $400 Polymarket »