🟪 the "surely not" bet

The "surely not" bet is the extreme longshot — the market priced so low that the payout on a dollar is absurd. $50. $100. $500. The kind of number that makes you do the math twice and then think about it for the rest of the day.

Most of these won't hit. That's the point. But prediction markets occasionally misprice things — and when a "surely not" suddenly starts moving, it becomes the most interesting market on the board.

These are the bets filed under "entertainment expenses." A dollar and a dream, priced by the crowd.